OG-171

由 **micht** » 2004-11-17 01:46

171. a recent report determined that although only three percent of drivers on maryland
highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, thirty-three percent of all vehicles
ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. clearly, drivers who equip
their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than
are drivers who do not.

the conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?

(a) drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not.

(b) drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.

(c) the number of vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit was greater than the number of vehicles that were equipped with radar detectors.

(d) many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were ticketed more than once in the time period covered by the report.

(e) drivers on maryland highways exceeded the speed limit more often than did drivers on other state highways not covered in the report.

Answer: B

魚~~快來就我這一題~~~死老筋轉轉轉轉轉不過來

由魚 » 2004-11-17 02:29

金剛 .你是A/ B 搞不清楚嗎 ?

還是asumption 的考法不清楚 ?
我先貼,我們在討論吧

171. a recent report determined that although only three percent of drivers on maryland
highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors(少數人3%有偵測器), thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them.(接到罰單的人中30%都有裝) clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not. (有裝的人都愛超速)
the conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?

(a) drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not. (有裝的人比沒裝的人不容易因超速被開單)

(b) drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed. (超速被開單的人比沒開被開單的人常超速)
我猜這兩個選項比較容易昏頭吧

由 **micht** » 2004-11-17 06:15

Fact 1: only three percent of drivers on maryland
highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors 只有%有偵測器

Fact 2: thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them 所有超速罰單的中30%都有裝偵測器

Conclusion: 有裝的人都愛超速

B) 超速被開單的人比沒開被開單的人常超速

超速不一定裝偵測器....? 超速不一定都會被抓?....背抓到的不一定都裝偵測器

唉唷威呀~~~~ :'( :'( 我不了..........這題好繞........ |-)

我瞄了一cd人解釋是說..

結論是一講 "regular behaviour 常態的現象"

如何將 Fact 1 and Fact + assumption = 常態?

由魚 » 2004-11-17 06:31

micht \$m[1]:
Fact 1: only three percent of drivers on maryland
highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors 只有%有偵測器

Fact 2: thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them 所有超速罰單的中30%都有裝偵測器

Conclusion: 有裝的人都愛超速

B) 超速被開單的人比沒開被開單的人常超速

超速不一定裝偵測器....? 超速不一定都會被抓?....背抓到的不一定都裝偵測

如何將 Fact 1 and Fact + assumption = 常態?

step 1.
1 +2 = 裝偵測器的人不多(只有3%) & 所有超速罰單的中30%都有裝偵測

step 2. 假設____________________________

step 3. conclution ======>有裝的人都愛超速

assumption不成立 , 就無法得到comclution

所以, 我們來weaken 看看

A ) 有裝的測速的人不容易因超速被開單
設A不成立 , 得 : 有裝的測速的人容易因超速被開單

當A被weaken之後會影響結論 (有裝的人都愛超速)嗎 ?? [color=red] 不會[!!!/color]

B ) 超速被開單的人比沒開被開單的人常超速
設B不成立 ,得 : 超速被開單的人不常超速

當B被weaken之後會影響結論 (有裝的人都愛超速)嗎 ??

答案是會 !!!

所以 , B 當然是assumption嚕 ;)

由 **micht** » 2004-11-17 09:26

魚

我懂了超感謝 :'( :'(

有裝的測速的人容易因超速被開單
=>不代表常常超車.........=_=!! 這題真討厭

困擾偶~~~ :-$

由 **Ethan** » 2004-11-17 09:28

Clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.
Why they want to equip with radar detectors?
Because they want to avoid being ticketed.
Why they want to avoid being ticketed?
Because they often exceed the speed limit.-> (B)

由 **micht** » 2004-11-17 09:32

:o thank you Ethan^^

順便幫我看看 ~~~

http://www.formosamba.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=959

由訪客 » 2004-11-17 11:48

這題我也常搞混
不過這題的技巧在你要鎖定你的目標對象做了什麼事情
把group點出來後,就好判斷了
目標對象:超速被開單的人
做了些什麼事情ㄋㄟ=>超速ㄇㄟ
這兩件是鎖定後,就好選了
ACDE選項目標對象是在我們假設的對象之內,不過他做的事情不對,推不到結論
魚用的否定假設就可證明....
小技巧參考之

由 **micht** » 2004-11-17 17:08

mike謝謝

不過這題會務以為要鎖定...drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors @_@

由 **asicschu** » 2004-11-17 22:49

金剛妹...
關於這一題...
我覺得要用"常理"來判斷...
有開車的話...
就知道這個道理了...
像我看到這一題...
就很有感覺... i67

由 **micht** » 2004-11-17 23:03

asicschu

那一定訴你愛超車又愛超速又有裝雷答 :P

網站 · 由 **agk99** » 2005-02-27 14:05

上次學了calvin兄的取非技巧
非常試用這一題，我後來才發現，原來以前都是敗在自己想太多
前題或假設題就是取非來做，很難選到錯誤選項

由 **65kevin** » 2005-07-28 02:56

能否請問一下, 什麼是"取非技巧" ??

由 **scujean** » 2006-03-29 21:29

我不會用取非，不過用了其他方法，解出
1.題幹寫到：thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them(雷達)→有裝雷達的人容易吃單
2.題目結論：drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than
are drivers who do not. →有裝雷達的人，容易超速
3.從有裝雷達的人容易吃單推論到有裝雷達的人，容易超速。有裝雷達的人→容易超速，中間少了一各連接點
4.連接點：(b) drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed. →有吃單的人,更容易超速
5.結論：有裝雷達的人，容易吃單→(b)有吃單的人,更容易超速

由 **Jen-Cheng** » 2006-09-03 13:08

請問一下scujean

{thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them(雷達)→有裝雷達的人容易吃單 }

是如何從這句推得"有裝的人容易吃單"

我的想法是，"在所有吃單的人裡面，有33%裝雷達"，在此並沒有和其它的原因做比較，為何可以推得??

OG-171

OG-171

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